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Forecasting the Prices of Crude-Oil, Natural-Gas and Refined Products

An Interactive 10-Day Training Course

Forecasting the Prices of Crude-Oil, Natural-Gas and Refined Products

A Financial-Economics Approach to Forecasting

NASBA

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Course Summary

This 10-day two-phase GLOMACS Training Seminar is concerned with one of the most important activities in the development of oil and gas business-forecasting the oil prices, as basis for planning and investment. As we have learned that oil prices are depending on many factors, and that prices simulations need to be much more stringent in order to determine the actual risk that our investment is facing.

A critical component of decision-making in the energy industry deals with the aspect of “Whither oil prices?”:  Where do we expect prices to move in the near- and distant-terms?  Participants in the Energy Industry are constantly confronted with a wide range of information regarding current and prospective prices in their industry.  Broadly, this data comes from analyses of supply-and-demand changes, geopolitical events and the financial markets, including the commodity markets.

The oil projects require lot of investment, and it takes years for the oilfield to start producing profit, therefore adequate forecasts are essential for companies to understand when and how their returns on investment will appear and how valuable will they be.

While providing the requisite background on the economics of financial commodity markets, as well as the statistical tools required to understand them, this GLOMACS Training Seminar demonstrates how the financial and commodity markets provide useful information for the generation of “expected prices”, or forecast prices, in the critical areas of oil, natural-gas and refined products.  In so doing, the course will also demonstrate the important distinction between valuation and risk/return analyses.

This GLOMACS training seminar is split into two phases:

  • Forecasting the Prices of Crude-Oil, Natural-Gas and Refined Products Phase 1
  • Forecasting the Prices of Crude-Oil, Natural-Gas and Refined Products Phase 2
Course Outline
Day 1

Forecasting the Prices of Crude-Oil, Natural-Gas and Refined Products Phase 1

Day 2

The Current State of the Equity and Commodity Markets

  • Measuring Nervousness / Uncertainty of Equity and Commodity Markets
  • The Crude-Oil Markets: The Paradox of World Crude Oil Prices
  • Complexity and Interdependence in the Oil Market
  • Upstream Petroleum Fiscal Valuation and Modelling
  • The Refining Spread and Retail Gasoline Prices
  • Refined oil Products-refining Capacity and throughput
  • Natural  Gas
    • Physical Characteristics and Supply
    • Reserves and Production
    • Demand Determinants
    • Trade
    • Pricing
Day 3

A Primer on the Interest-Rate Markets 

  • Time and Time Value of Money-Modeling Commercial Behavior with the Economic Limit Test
  • The Brent Contract and IPE Brent Market
  • Financial Markets’ Message from Markets: Interpret Bond-market Moves in Conjunction with those in Equity Markets
  • Floating Rate Securities
  • Understanding the Fundamentals of Bond Valuation and Excel Functions for Bond Pricing
  • Bond risks, Interest-Rate Volatility and Interest Rate Risk as the Key Bond Risk
  • Duration and Convexity: Hedging Interest Rate Exposure
  • Forecasting Future Interest Rates Using
    • A financial-economics Approach
    • Practitioners' Approaches
Day 4

Overview of Statistical Concepts, Forwards and Futures

  • Basic Statistical Concepts: Average and Volatility, Stationarity of Time Variables
  • Regression Analysis
  • Using Solver to Solve Constrained Optimization Problems
  • Amortization and Depreciation
  • Fundamentals of Forwards and Futures Contracts: Definition, Payoff Diagram, Pricing by Arbitrage
  • Forward / Futures Prices and Forecast Prices
Day 5

Swap Contracts and Options in Energy Markets

  • Commodity Swaps
  • Payoffs and Put-Call Parity
  • Black-Scholes Formula
  • Option Sensitivities (the “Greeks”): Delta and Gamma
  • The Binomial Model and the Valuation of American-Style Options
Day 6

Forecasting the Prices of Oil, Natural-Gas and Refined Products

  • The Market Price of Risk: Estimating a Risk Premium in Finance, and Applying it to Energy Prices
  • How Can Use Regression Analysis to Fortify Our Understanding of Financial Markets’ Perspective on Forecast Prices?
  • Where Can We Observe Forecast Prices?
  • What is the Difference between Futures Prices and Forecast Prices?
  • What is the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and How Can We Use it to Forecast Oil Prices?
  • Applying a Jump-Diffusion Model to Oil Futures Options
  • Using the Market Price of Risk to Implement Risk-Management from a Corporate Perspective
Day 7

INTERVAL BETWEEN PHASE ONE AND PHASE TWO

  • Historical Volatility - The Term Structure of Volatility (TSOV)
  • Estimating Volatility from Market Prices of Options in Energy Markets
  • Historical or Implied Vols?
  • Estimating a Mean-Reverting Process
  • Characterizing the Volatility “Surface” Across Time and Strike
Day 8

Forecasting the Prices of Crude-Oil, Natural-Gas and Refined Products Phase 2

  • Jump-Diffusion Process
  • Valuation of Long-Dated Real Assets and Financial Structured Products
  • Extrapolating Crude-Oil Prices
  • Extrapolating Natural-Gas Prices
  • Extrapolating the Term Structure of Volatilities (TSOV)
  • Extrapolating Correlations
Day 9

The Statistics of the Price Processes in Energy Markets 

  • Commercial Structured Products
  • Categorizing Derivative Products: Option Collars, Average Options, Spread Options, Swing Options, Weather Derivatives, Commodity-linked Bonds, “Swing” Options, Weather Derivatives
  • Structuring and Valuing Option Collars
  • Structuring and Valuing Average (Asian) Options
Day 10

The Extrapolation in Energy Finance

  • Example of Calibration: Using Vanilla Options to Determine the Value of Volatility for Valuation of Average Options
  • Non-Commercial Structured Products
  • Exotic Instruments: Constant Maturity Contracts, Compound Options, Quanto Contracts
Day 11

Energy Derivative Products:  Structuring and Valuation 

  • Inventories, Oil Prices and Production
  • Difficulty in Planning for the Oil Safety Stock
  • API Reports
  • Oil Market Rebalancing
  • Cost Break-even Oil Prices
  • Role of Shale Oil
  • Diversification in the GCC
  • How different countries deal with the oil price changes?
Day 12

Energy Derivative Products:  Calibration and Hedging in Profitable Market-Making

Day 13

Geopolitical and Economic Events and Crude Oil Prices

Certificates
  • On successful completion of this training course, GLOMACS Certificate will be awarded to the delegates.
  • Continuing Professional Education credits (CPE): In accordance with the standards of the National Registry of CPE Sponsors, one CPE credit is granted per 50 minutes of attendance.
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