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Forecasting the Prices of Crude-Oil, Natural-Gas and Refined Products

An Interactive 10-Day Training Course

Forecasting the Prices of Crude-Oil, Natural-Gas and Refined Products

A Financial-Economics Approach to Forecasting

NASBA
Scheduled Dates
Date Venue Fees
07 - 18 Sep 2026 London $ 11,900
07 - 18 Sep 2026 Online $ 9,900
16 - 27 Nov 2026 Houston $ 15,900
15 - 26 Mar 2027 Dubai $ 11,900
24 May - 04 Jun 2027 London $ 11,900
06 - 17 Sep 2027 London $ 11,900
06 - 17 Sep 2027 Online $ 9,900
15 - 26 Nov 2027 Houston $ 15,900

Course Summary

Forecasting energy prices is a critical capability for professionals involved in trading, valuation, investment, production planning, and risk management. As commodity markets become increasingly influenced by financial markets, geopolitical developments, macroeconomic trends, and supply-demand dynamics, organisations require professionals who can interpret market signals and generate reliable price forecasts. The Forecasting the Prices of Crude-Oil, Natural-Gas and Refined Products training course provides a comprehensive understanding of financial economics, commodity market behaviour, and statistical techniques used to forecast prices across crude oil, natural gas, and refined petroleum products. Participants will strengthen their ability to analyse market information, evaluate price expectations, and apply forecasting techniques to support strategic and operational decision-making.

Participants will also develop practical knowledge of derivatives, futures, options, volatility modelling, risk management, and asset valuation within energy markets. The training course explains how financial markets convey valuable information for estimating future prices while distinguishing between valuation methodologies and risk-return analysis. Through an integrated financial-economics approach, the Forecasting the Prices of Crude-Oil, Natural-Gas and Refined Products training course equips professionals with the analytical skills needed to optimise energy risk exposure, evaluate investment opportunities, and make more informed commercial decisions in increasingly volatile global energy markets.

Skills & Competencies

From this Forecasting the Prices of Crude-Oil, Natural-Gas and Refined Products training course, participants will develop the following key skills and competencies:

  • Energy price forecasting and market analysis
  • Commodity risk management
  • Financial modelling and valuation
  • Statistical analysis and volatility estimation
  • Derivatives and options evaluation
  • Strategic decision-making in energy markets

Key Learning Outcomes

At the end of Forecasting the Prices of Crude-Oil, Natural-Gas and Refined Products training course, you will learn to:

  • Apply financial-economics models to forecast crude oil, natural gas and refined product prices.
  • Evaluate futures, options, and derivatives to support pricing and risk management decisions.
  • Analyse market volatility and estimate expected returns using statistical techniques.
  • Utilise real options theory to value energy assets and optimise production decisions.
  • Strengthen corporate energy risk management through effective forecasting and valuation methods.

How You Will Learn

Learning is achieved through structured presentations, analytical discussions, practical financial examples, guided problem-solving activities, and application of statistical and financial-economics concepts. Participants will progressively develop forecasting, valuation, and risk management capabilities by examining market behaviour, interpreting financial information, and applying proven analytical techniques to energy market decision-making.

Who should Attend?

This training course is designed for professionals responsible for analysing, forecasting, valuing, or managing financial and commercial activities within the energy industry. It also benefits those seeking to strengthen their understanding of commodity pricing, financial markets, and energy risk management.

This Forecasting the Prices of Crude-Oil, Natural-Gas and Refined Products training course is suitable to a wide range of professionals but will greatly benefit:

  • Financial Analysts
  • Quantitative Analysts and Researchers
  • Energy Traders
  • Risk Managers
  • Commercial and Investment Bankers dealing with commodities
Course Outline
Day 1

The Current State of the Equity & Commodity Markets

This day examines the relationship between equity and commodity markets while exploring the major factors influencing crude oil, natural gas, and refined product prices. Participants will analyse market uncertainty, seasonality, inflation expectations, and the interaction between financial and energy markets. The topics covered will include:

  • Measuring Nervousness / Uncertainty of Equity and Commodity Markets
  • The Crude-Oil Markets: Level and Slope of Crude-Oil Futures Markets, Impact of Economic, Financial and Geopolitical Events on Implied Volatilities in the Crude-Oil Market
  • Impact of Seasonality on Global NatGas Markets
  • Future Inflation Rates
  • The Refining Spread and Retail Gasoline Prices
  • The Domestic NatGas Market: The Impact of Seasonality
  • The March / April 2007 Futures Contract
Day 2

A Primer on the Interest-Rate Markets

This day introduces the fundamentals of interest-rate markets and explains their influence on commodity pricing and financial decision-making. Participants explore bond valuation, market indicators, interest-rate derivatives, and forecasting methodologies. The topics covered will include:

  • Financial Markets’ “Message from Markets”, Interpret bond-market moves in conjunction with those in equity markets
  • Empirical Regularities of Global Fixed Income Markets
  • Understanding the Fundamentals of Bond Valuation
  • Eurodollar Futures and Interest Rate Swaps
  • Duration and Convexity: Hedging Interest Rate Exposure
  • Interest-Rate Volatility
  • Forecasting Future Interest Rates Using
    • A Financial-economics Approach
    • Practitioners' Approaches
Day 3

Overview of Statistical Concepts

This day develops the statistical foundations required for energy price forecasting and financial modelling. Participants examine core statistical techniques and optimisation methods used in quantitative analysis. The topics covered will include:

  • Basic Statistical Concepts: Average and Volatility, Stationarity of Time Variables
  • Regression Analysis
  • Using Solver to Solve Constrained Optimization Problems
Day 4

Forward, Futures and Swap Contracts in Energy Markets

This day focuses on the pricing and valuation of forward, futures, and swap contracts used throughout energy markets. Participants explore pricing mechanisms and the distinction between market valuation and expected value. The topics covered will include:

  • Fundamentals of Forwards and Futures Contracts: Definition, Payoff Diagram, Pricing by Arbitrage
  • Forward / Futures Prices and Forecast Prices
  • Commodity Swaps
  • The Key Difference between Real-Asset Valuation and Expected Value
Day 5

Part I: Option Pricing

This day introduces option pricing principles and demonstrates their application within energy markets. Participants examine valuation models, option sensitivities, and real options used for energy asset valuation. The topics covered will include:

  • Payoffs and Put-Call Parity
  • Black-Scholes Formula
  • Option “Sensitivities” (the “Greeks”): Delta and Gamma
  • The Binomial Model and the Valuation of American-Style Options
  • Real Options in Energy Markets: Power Plants as a Strip of Spark Spread Options, Oil Fields as the Valuation of an Extraction Option
Day 6

Continuation of Day 5

This day continues the study of option pricing concepts with further exploration of valuation approaches and their application to energy-related investment and production decisions. Participants reinforce their understanding of pricing models and real options analysis. The topics covered will include:

Part I: Option Pricing

Day 7

The Statistics of the Price Processes in Energy Markets

This day explores volatility modelling and statistical techniques used to forecast long-term energy prices. Participants examine historical and implied volatility, mean reversion, jump-diffusion processes, and extrapolation techniques. The topics covered will include:

  • Historical Volatility: The Term Structure of Volatility (TSOV)
  • Estimating Volatility from Market Prices of Options in Energy Markets
  • Historical or Implied Vols?
  • Estimating a Mean-Reverting Process
  • Characterizing the Volatility “Surface” Across Time and Strike
  • Jump-Diffusion Process
  • The Need to Extrapolate in Energy Finance: Valuation of Long-Dated Real Assets and Financial Structured Products, Extrapolating Crude-Oil Prices, Extrapolating Natural-Gas Prices, Extrapolating the Term Structure of Volatilities (TSOV), Extrapolating Correlations
Day 8

Forecasting the Prices of Oil, Natural-Gas and Refined Products

This day focuses on forecasting methodologies that combine financial theory with market data to estimate future energy prices. Participants examine risk premiums, forecasting models, and practical applications for corporate risk management. The topics covered will include:

  • The “Market Price of Risk”: Estimating a Risk Premium in Finance, and Applying it to Energy Prices
  • How Can Use Regression Analysis to Fortify Our Understanding of Financial Markets’ Perspective on Forecast Prices?
  • Where Can We Observe Forecast Prices?
  • What is the Difference between Futures Prices and Forecast Prices?
  • What is the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and How Can We Use it to Forecast Oil Prices?
  • Applying a Jump-Diffusion Model to Oil Futures Options
  • Using the Market Price of Risk to Implement Risk-Management from a Corporate Perspective
Day 9

Energy Derivative Products: The Role of Structuring, Calibration, Valuation and Hedging in Profitable Market-Making

This day examines structured energy derivative products and their valuation within commercial and non-commercial markets. Participants explore product structuring, calibration techniques, and hedging applications. The topics covered will include:

  • Commercial Structured Products
  • Categorizing Derivative Products: Option Collars, Average Options, Spread Options, Swing Options, Weather Derivatives, Commodity-linked Bonds, “Swing” Options, Weather Derivatives
  • Structuring and Valuing Option Collars
  • Structuring and Valuing Average (Asian) Options
  • Example of Calibration:  Using Vanilla Options to Determine the Value of Volatility for Valuation of Average Options
  • Non-Commercial Structured Products
Day 10

Continuation of Day 9

This day concludes the course by further developing advanced structuring, calibration, valuation, and hedging techniques for energy derivative products. Participants consolidate the financial principles required for profitable market-making and energy risk management. The topics covered will include:

Energy Derivative Products: The Role of Structuring, Calibration, Valuation and Hedging in Profitable Market-Making

Certificates
  • Upon successful completion of the classroom-based training course, GLOMACS Certificate will be awarded to the delegates. Continuing Professional Education credits (CPE): In accordance with the standards of the National Registry of CPE Sponsors, one CPE credit is granted per 50 minutes of attendance
  • Upon successful completion of the online training course, a GLOMACS Certificate will be awarded to all delegates. Guided Learning Hours – In accordance with ISO 9001:2015–certified quality management standards, one Guided Learning Hour is awarded for every 60 minutes of attendance.
Providers and Associations

Endorsed Education Provider

NASBA

In Association With

Options & Brochure
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NASBA

Customisation & In-House Delivery

Delivering this training course as an in-house solution enables organisations to tailor forecasting models, valuation approaches, and risk management techniques to their own operational, commercial, and investment requirements. Customisation ensures participants apply financial-economics principles directly to their organisation's energy portfolio, market exposures, and strategic objectives, delivering measurable improvements in forecasting accuracy and commercial decision-making.

Why Choose Saudi GLOMACS?

Saudi GLOMACS is the official Saudi Arabian division of GLOMACS International (glomacs.com), delivering internationally recognised training courses both within Saudi Arabia and across international locations. Our training courses are aligned with the highest professional and institutional standards, supported by a strong understanding of the professional landscape in Saudi Arabia and access to global expertise.

Saudi GLOMACS enables professionals and organisations to strengthen leadership, capability, and long-term excellence through consistently high-quality learning experiences.

Official Saudi Presence

Official Saudi Arabian division of GLOMACS with established global credibility.

International Benchmarks

Internationally benchmarked training courses aligned with professional best practices.

Trusted Across Sectors

Trusted by professionals and institutions across public and private sectors.

Flexible Delivery

Training courses delivered within Saudi Arabia and across international locations.

Additional Benefits of this course for Organisations and Professionals in Saudi Arabia

Organisations & Professionals in KSA will have the following additional benefits from this Forecasting the Prices of Crude-Oil, Natural-Gas and Refined Products training course:

  • Stronger commodity price forecasting capability
  • Better energy investment decisions
  • Improved financial risk management
  • Enhanced derivatives valuation expertise
  • Greater market analysis proficiency
  • Increased commercial decision confidence
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Frequently Asked Question

No. Saudi GLOMACS delivers courses in Saudi Arabia and internationally, including delivery across Europe and Asia. This allows organisations and professionals to access training both locally and abroad.

No. While governance and leadership are part of the portfolio, Saudi GLOMACS delivers training across the entire business and professional lifecycle, including administrative, technical, legal, regulatory, and sector-specific training.

No. Our training courses are delivered globally through international locations and online platforms, enabling participants from Saudi Arabia and around the world to learn together. This global delivery approach ensures exposure to diverse perspectives, international best practices, and cross-cultural insights while maintaining strong relevance to regional and organisational needs.

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Yes. Saudi GLOMACS designs and delivers bespoke in-house training tailored to organisational objectives, sector requirements, and workforce needs. Training can be delivered in Saudi Arabia or internationally, depending on requirements.

Yes, in-house and customised strategy training courses are available to support organisations seeking tailored strategic capability development. These courses can be aligned with your industry context, organisational challenges, and long-term strategic objectives.

For further details or to discuss customisation requirements, you may call or WhatsApp +966 (54) 286 8546 or email [email protected] . You can also submit a detailed enquiry through our in-house training page at: https://sa.glomacs.com/in-house-seminars

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For personalised assistance or detailed enquiries, please contact our team on +966 (54) 286 8546 or email us at [email protected]

Courses delivered in Saudi Arabia are adapted to reflect local regulatory frameworks, organisational structures, sector conditions, and professional expectations. This ensures training is relevant, practical, and aligned with Saudi workplace realities.

GLOMACS has been delivering professional training for over thirty years, with courses delivered across Europe, the Middle East, Asia, and other international markets.

Saudi GLOMACS combines three decades of global training experience with a clear focus on Saudi market relevance. This allows it to deliver training that is both internationally credible and locally applicable, across a broader range of disciplines than niche or single-focus providers.

Saudi GLOMACS is a Saudi-based professional training provider delivering courses tailored to the Saudi market and applicable internationally. It operates within the global GLOMACS framework and draws on more than three decades of international training experience.

Saudi GLOMACS offers professional training across a wide range of disciplines, including administration, leadership and management, governance and regulation, law, oil and gas, energy, engineering, finance, digital technologies, and sector-specific specialisations.

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